I came to the conclusion some time ago that a flu pandemic is unlikely (I describe why here). Nonetheless, I'm in New York this week, hanging out in crowded public places, and the reports of swine flu pandemic were initially so disturbing that I thought I should keep an eye on the situation in both NYC and Canada. The Globe & Mail and New York Times home pages seem to be updated hourly with new causes of concern. At least the headlines cause concern; all the details seem pretty reassuring: outside of Mexico, everyone who has had this strain of swine flu has been only mildly ill; and the strain is not resistant to Tamiflu (which everyone stockpiled after the bird flu scare two years ago).
We in Canada have been through SARS so know how important it is to handle flu outbreaks carefully. But Jeeze Louise, this swine flu coverage is just fear mongering.
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For more than a decade now, the World Health Organization has been spreading extremely alarming reports about the potential for an influenza pandemic. Each year they have claimed that avian flu was about to mutate into a form transmissible among humans. It has never happened. Now we are told that a mysterious swine-human-bird flu mutation is about to kill us all. Yet, as you rightly point out, all the cases in North America are mild. What gives? There are those who suspect Big Pharma, but this seems unlikely as they're pretty well operating at capacity manufacturing anti-viral drugs anyway. The makers of surgical masks? I've always thought the simplest explanation is that someone at the WHO has hit upon a surefire way to protect their department's budget by promoting hysteria. By this time next year - when this latest pandemic has flopped as well - we'll probably be warned about a new-new-new virus that's spread by SUV exhaust fumes.
"Each year they have claimed that avian flu was about to mutate into a form transmissible among humans. It has never happened."
Well, it has, actually, it just hasn't become a major catastrophe.
"Now we are told that a mysterious swine-human-bird flu mutation is about to kill us all."
Err, who has said that? (Sorry, I'm sounding like Abbott and Costello.)
Bruce 1 Rocker 0
"Well, it has, actually, it just hasn't become a major catastrophe."
Actually, I have no idea why I said "it has, actually..."--poking around a little, it looks like this is still an open question?
But I'm still inclined to think the main reason public health people are warning about a likely future flu pandemic is that, well, they've studied the question and think one is in fact likely.
This whole swine-avian-zombie flu scare reminds me of what Michael Crighton wrote at the end of his book, "State Of Fear".
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