Saturday, July 15, 2006

Finger in the Dyke

News in Israel and Lebanon this week has been upsetting, stressful, and worrisome. I'm a worst case scenario kind of guy and my mind jumps ahead to wild speculations, such as: Bush & Co are not up to the task of mediating peace -> the Europeans may step in to the vacuum -> the Europeans are anti-Israel -> Israel's security will be pushed to the limit -> Israel will nuke somebody.

If Israel uses an atomic bomb, the whole world enters a new era of nukes. It's the worst worst case scenario there is. It was my biggest worry during the Gulf War (remember those germ warfare-tipped scud missiles Sadaam sent into Israel?). I wonder how close Israel came to nuking Baghdad then. I'm glad I wasn't a fly on the wall in those discussions.

Instability in the Middle East has so many causes these days that it's hard to see how things can ever get better. A catalyst is that the US occupation of Iraq is widely seen as both illegitimate and a failure, so in one fell swoop the US has lost both respect and fear.

The bombings and border incursions by Hamas and Hezbollah are not about getting Israel to draw a new border. A Palestinian state is not even the point anymore, if it ever was. Hamas, Hezbollah, the Muslim Brotherhood, Iran and Syria are all working towards restructuring the Middle East... and there is a whole lot of jostling as to who will run the show. Part of the deal is to wipe out Israel, but Jordan could be next. (Article 6 of the Hamas covenant says that Hamas "strives to raise the banner of Allah over every inch of Palestine... this is the law - namely that no part of Palestine may be given up - and the same goes for any land the Muslims have conquered by force, because during the time of Islamic conquests the Muslims consecrated these lands to Muslim generations till Judgement Day."

Israel is just the finger in the dyke. And the past 25 years have shown that when Israel makes concessions, Arab extremist aggression escalates. When Israel stands tough, the dyke holds. Israel is bombing the bejeezus out of Lebanon, and next it's going to invade and probably go door to door throughout the south, routing Hezbollah. It's heartbreaking to think of the destruction in the beautiful country of Lebanon, but it's not clear that there's any hope for the region if they don't.

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4 comments:

Anonymous said...

You obviously don't take Palestinian aspirations very seriously. Israel is not more innocent than anyone else and suggesting that each time Israel makes a concession, aggression follows is complete and utter nonsense. Concession and Israel are two words that are seldom linked. Hamas is a huge problem, but what was the excuse before Hamas?

Yappa said...

In response to anonymous...

I did have some reasons for arguing that Israeli concessions lead to aggression by Arab extremists:

- March 1994, Israel hands the Gaza strip over to Arafat; that summer, busses are blown up in Tel Aviv.
- 1995, Israel gives Arafat control over most major Palestinian towns; three months later, suicide bombers kill 60 Israelis in Jerusalem and Tel Aviv.
- 2000, Clinton and Barak give Arafat almost everything he demands; two months later, the biggest terror offensive ever is started, killing 1000 Israelis and 3000 Palestinians.
- In the last year, Israel leaves Gaza, and five months later, Hamas is elected an Kassam rockets start shooting from Gaza into Israel.

I take Palestinian aspirations very seriously, and I see that Palestinians are being hurt as much as or even more than Israelis by the imperialist aspirations of Iran, Syria, the Muslim Brotherhood, Hamas, Hezbollah, and other extremist organizations.

I think you've got to stop looking at this in such a black and white way. You seem to support the Palestinians and so you hate Israel. But in reality noboby is all in the right or all in the wrong here.

Anonymous said...

Who said anything about hating Israel? Some people just have more balanced views than you seem to. Your views seem one-sided. Israel = good. Arab = bad.

Orhan Kahn said...

I'm just going to sit back and watch the Middle East devolve a little more.