Thursday, October 09, 2008

Better, But Not Enough Better

The VFE seat prediction model now has the Conservatives at 134, the Liberals at 83 and the NDP at 38. LISPOP is predicting Cons 138, Libs 88, and NDP 31.

Just a week ago a Harper majority seemed unstoppable. Now it seems that if we had just one extra week in the campaign, the Liberal and NDP momentum might re-establish enough seats to form a coalition.

We have so little time left. If we could just put on one final, grand mal effort over the weekend - and I don't just mean the political operatives, but all of us - we might replace the Harper government.

If we don't, the Conservatives might put on a grand mal effort that puts them back in majority territority.

The biggest challenge left is getting out the vote. That's something we can all work on in our circle of acquaintance.

Update: Apparently the Bloc has signalled a willingness to consider a coalition with the Liberals. The two seat predictions above have the Bloc at 50 and 51 seats. That puts the Liberals and Bloc almost (but not quite) in range of being able to form a government.


Bert said...

One more week wouldn't be enough, Yappa, not with interviews like this: .

Please. You cannot honestly watch that and think Stepane Dion would make a good PM. There was some talk that he didn't understand the question because of his hearing problems. The video makes it clear that he understood what was said, just not what was meant.

Yappa said...

Hi Bert -

I think Dion would be an excellent PM - far better than Harper. I don't think the interview has any bearing on that.

But there's no question that it was an unfortunate gaffe with terrible timing. If Liberal fortunes drop over the weekend, it could cause some problems within the party for Dion.