Wednesday, September 24, 2008

Federal Deadlock

Update: Sorry, this is last year's poll. But looking foolish was worth it to have had a moment of respite from my desperation about the dire state of the nation...

Latest Nanos Poll - Tories 35, Grits 34, NDP 17, Bloc 9, Green 6

I don't usually hang on the polls as much as I'm doing this year, but the prospect of a Harper majority is so frightening that I'm doing so this time. And it looks like the big Tory lead on Nanos yesterday was some sort of aberration. Today they're back where they've been the last couple of weeks: only better!

It's looking more possible that we may have the opportunity to form a coalition government, so I hope all the parties on the left are preparing strategies - strategies for how best to do it for the good of the country, not for the political ends of their own party. The leader who emerges with a workable plan is going to look very, very good.

If we have the opportunity to unseat Harper with a coalition, we're all going to have to be flexible about policies. We agree on a lot more than we disagree on. We should also be sure to utilize the best talent from all coalition participants. It could be a great move forward to have NDP and Green members in federal cabinet.

Whether the Tories win the election or the Liberals are able to participate in a coalition government, I hope the Liberal backroom boys are charting a plan for what to do about our leader and how to replace him if that's what's needed. It's not a topic we want to talk about publicly yet, but there may be too little confidence in our leader to keep him on. I say this even though I think he'd make an excellent prime minister - I'm concerned that two years of Tory lies and attacks have simply left him too discredited.


Ben (The Tiger) said...

Wrong year. (See comments on it from 2007.)

These are the latest.

WesternGrit said...

The overall numbers look much better (much), but Quebec scares me. If the Bloc falters, will the people of Quebec really vote for these backwards social conservatives? The federal Conservatives are in serious scandals of their own... I don't think Gomery could be an issue at this point. I think it is more of an issue of comfort with Harper.

Maybe the "dismantling of Canada" agenda appeals to both rural Quebec AND, of course, the Harper Conservatives?

Anonymous said...

Yeah I hate to break it to you but if you click on "home" on the menu bar on that page it shows Nik's recent polls and it's not a deadlock.

Lycan Stark said...

Sorry bud, but you have the wrong poll here. Maybe instead of being so desperate to see ANY result that will make the Liberals look like they're doing better, you'll take your time and check next time.


Steve Janke said...

Hey, we all make mistakes. Of course, it is interesting that your eagerness for a coalition was apparent when you thought the Liberals were doubling the NDP in the polls. The real numbers show the NDP and the Liberals closely matched. Jack Layton outpaces Stephane Dion in leadership polls. A coalition under these circumstances would require the Liberals to defer a great deal to the NDP, indeed quite possibly be a junior partner in a coalition. Is that still a good idea? Just as appealing as before?

Yappa said...

Hi Steve -

For sure I support a coalition whether led by the Liberals or the NDP. I've said as much in comments over at Curiosity Cat. In fact, I think if the Liberals want to ask others to join their coalition, then they have to be ready to join another party's coalition if the other party has more seats. It's only fair. And it's all about cooperating, not bullying.

Yappa said...

Hi westerngrit -

Apologies for spreading misinformation with the old poll.

I don't understand Quebec, but Chantal Hebert has been saying for the last year or more that Quebec is becoming more conservative. I think 22 months of pandering and payouts by Harper has also had an effect - we're all looking out for our interests, after all.

The thing is: if the new reality is that the Conservatives buy Quebec votes and screw Ontario, why do the Liberals continue to elect Francophone leaders? I'm not opposed to leaders from Quebec, but it's getting increasingly lopsided.

Haltonjohn said...

Harper Rocks

Tom said...

Ha, ha, ha, "Conservatives buying Quebec votes"!!! That's so funny coming from a Liberal.

Yappa said...

Hi Tom -

You're right... and I used to complain about it with Chretien and Mulroney. Probably with Trudeau too, although I can't remember back that far.

Maybe one of these days the NDP will have a chance to take the reins and pander to Quebec. ;-)

Anonymous said...

You vote Liberal and you get:
- the current mess with the CHRC
- gigantic money sucking programs like "universal daycare"
- military personnel dropped in a meatgrinder without proper equipment
- HRDC "losing" a billion dollars
- the Gun Registry debacle
- relations with the US in tatters (remember the softwood lumber dispute)
- kiss the north goodbye
- a screwed up equalization formula
- brain dead projects such as the rebuilding of Davis Inlet at a cost of $250K per person
- Adscam
- Radwanski
- Paul Champagne
- perverse incentives in the UI system
- crumbling infrastructure
- Kyoto
- pandering to the UN and countries with horrifying human rights records like China

And all with leaders nowhere nearly as inept as the Eunuch they currently have.

Anonymous said...

I say this even though I think he'd make an excellent prime minister.

You and about 5 other people. For most of us, though, the thought of Dion leading the country scares the crap out of us.

I'm concerned that two years of Tory lies and attacks have simply left him too discredited.

Yeah, and the Liberals would never stoop to smearing and attacking a political opponent. Secret scary hidden agenda...Soldiers in the streets with guns...

Too bad for your side that our side was much better at it this time around.

Kai said...

Ahhh, an even more clear case if Liberal Dementia and Harper Derangement Syndrome than Cherniak evinces. Too bad your whole argument collapses when you notice the poll is about a year old. Might I ask what colour the sky is in your world?

Yappa said...

To anonymous at 10:31 -

Soldiers with guns in the streets? Are you referring to the War Measures Act? Geeze Louise, that was nearly 40 years ago. Also, it was damned effective at ending terrorism in Canada.

Bert said...

Man Yappa, don't you remember back during the last election, when Mr. Martin put ads about Mr. Harper on T.V. saying if he was elected he would put soldiers in the streets with guns ?.
Thanks to youtube, the ad lives on:

Yappa said...

Hi Bert -

Aaargh, I did forget about that pathetic tag line, "We did not make this up." Of course Harper did say that about more military in the cities ( but the ad was bad, bad, bad.

I like the NDP ad that I posted on September 16. It's so over the top it's brilliant. (A little boy's head explodes in a nuclear blast!)

The party that has gone way too far in negative ads is the Conservatives, who have told lies about Liberal policies (such as that the Green Shift will raise gas prices (which it doesn't) raise takes (in fact, it's revenue neutral) and have "dire consequences" for the economy (again, it's revenue neutral).

But I imagine we're not going to agree on this one. ;-)