Tuesday, September 16, 2008

The Liberals Are Doing Better Than Reported

The latest polls have the Conservatives at 37 and the Liberals at 31 in the national popular vote. (This site shows results from Ipsos, Nanos, Harris-Decima and Ekos, and updates them throughout the day).

There are sorry indicators, for sure. Dion is lagging badly in polls about who would be the best prime minister. Quebec may swing Conservative, giving Harper a ton of seats. Some key Ontario swing ridings seem to be heading Conservative.

But it's not true, as you might believe from some commentary, that the Liberals are dying. The Toronto Star's James Travers was over the edge when he said that nervous Liberals are gazing into the abyss. The Globe also over-did the doom and gloom with a recent article that reported polls on the leaders as if they were polls on the parties, giving the impression that the NDP was ahead of the Liberals.

There are also some hints that the wind is changing slightly. Dion is now campaigning with Bob Rae - an excellent idea, not unlike Palin propping up McCain south of the border. The Tory momentum has petered out somewhat, according to an article in the Globe today. 905 is standing solid against them.

I'm starting to feel that we may keep Harper from getting his majority. This is no time for pessimism. We may have a leader who is stumbling a bit on the campaign trail, but that's not the whole story.

I'm writing this, in part, to re-energize myself and get myself out of the gloom of the first week of the campaign. Nothing defeats like defeatism. And the last week of the campaign is more important than the first.


penlan said...

I'm so glad to see Rae with Dion today. We need more of the "heavy-hitters" alongside Dion, on a regular basis, out on the trail. I think this can make a huge difference to the attention paid to the Libs, their policies/plans & will help get the messages across better.

This is only the beginning of the second week so take heart Yappa!

goldenhawk said...

Dion and his surrogates need to be hitting hard at the lies Harper is putting out there about rolling back the GST cut and taking away the $100 child care credit (even if it is not the most sound policy). The web strategy (scandalpedia) is good, but it's not going to reach the 50-something middle class voters in suburban Toronto that could mean the difference between holding the fort or being reduced further.

Abdul-Rahim said...

Thanks for the update about the polls I'm glad to see we are gaining some ground!!!

ALW said...

Key Ontario ridings are going Liberal? Pray tell, which ones!?